Gold has reached a historic high of $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history.

The rise is fueled by a global reassessment of risks: a weakening dollar, protracted inflation, geopolitical turbulence, and declining confidence in fiat assets are returning the metal to the center of the global financial scene.
At the same time, capital markets are seeing a surge in M&A deals and interest in AI, creating a rare combination of a flight to safe havens and technological optimism.

Gold as a symbol of trust

In 1912, speaking to Congress, J.P. Morgan uttered a phrase that has become the credo of investors for centuries:

"Gold is money, everything else is credit."

113 years later, these words ring particularly true. Amid a weakening dollar and rising debt risks, gold is once again becoming the world's "hard currency."

This week, the price of the yellow metal exceeded $4,000 per ounce for the first time —a historical high.

The rally began in late September and accelerated following a series of weak manufacturing reports in the US and signs of persistent inflation in Europe and Asia. Investors are registering a revaluation shift, from high-risk stocks to safe-haven assets.

Why gold is back in fashion

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said investors should hold up to 15% of their portfolio in gold , comparing the current situation to the early 1970s:

“We are at a point where high debt levels, a lack of confidence in monetary policy and fiscal risks are undermining faith in paper assets.”

The market is indeed reminiscent of the period before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, when the dollar was unpegged from gold.

Dalio is not alone. According to the World Gold Council , central banks purchased a record 870 tonnes of gold in the first nine months of 2025 , led by China, Turkey, and India. This is the largest purchase volume in 50 years.

Buffett's Skepticism and the Reality of the 21st Century

Warren Buffett noted with irony back in 1998:

"We mine gold from the ground in Africa, melt it down, bury it again, and pay people to guard it. Any Martian would scratch their head."

But, as Goldman Sachs analysts note , “Martians can scratch their heads all they want – Earth investors today prefer to scratch their bullion.”

Demand for gold is growing not because of romance, but because of systemic mistrust: in 2025, global debt exceeded $315 trillion , and the share of "paper assets" in central bank reserves fell to its lowest level since 2010.

Geopolitics and the Dollar: Flight to the "Yellow Haven"

The current rally is supported by four key drivers:

Weak dollar: The DXY index fell below 100 points for the first time since the spring of 2023.

Political uncertainty: US elections and escalation in the Middle East have increased demand for physical gold.

Inflation: Consumer prices in the US are growing by 3.4% y/y, in the eurozone – by 3.1%.

Stock markets under pressure: the S&P 500 index broke a seven-day winning streak and fell 0.38%.

SoftBank bets on the future

While some seek refuge, others are searching for the future. Japan's SoftBank Group announced the acquisition of ABB Robotics ' robotics division for $5.4 billion .

The deal will strengthen SoftBank's position in artificial intelligence and industrial automation. ABB, the Swiss engineering giant, is selling the business as part of a restructuring, and SoftBank sees it as a strategic entry into the era of "intelligent machines."

The deal was one of the largest M&A transactions in the technology sector in 2025.

M&A activity: capital is returning

Despite market volatility, global mergers and acquisitions are gaining momentum. According to Refinitiv , the total value of deals in the third quarter was $1.29 trillion , compared to $1.06 trillion in the second quarter.

The growth is driven by lower Fed rate expectations and excess liquidity in private equity funds. Investors are seizing the moment while the cost of capital is still reasonable.

Stock indices: pause after growth

The US stock market ended a seven-day rally. On Tuesday:

S&P 500 -0.38%
Nasdaq -0.45%
Dow Jones -0.32%

The main reason is the fear that investments in AI will not yield a quick return on investment.

In Asia, indices also fell on Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 retreating from its all-time high after a week of gains amid a stronger yen.

Analysis: How Gold, AI, and Capital Are Connected

At first glance, the gold market and AI transactions seem to exist in different worlds. But in essence, they are two ends of the same arc: risk aversion and the search for the future.

Gold is a response to systemic risks and fiat instability.
AI and robotics are the bet on productivity growth and a new economy.

This is precisely why the market is paradoxical today: investors are simultaneously fleeing the dollar and investing billions in the future.

Forecast
Goldman Sachs expects gold to hold above $3,900 through the end of 2025.
UBS sees potential for $4,500 with a 50 bp Fed rate cut.
JP Morgan forecasts a return of the S&P 500 to 5300 points after the correction.
Markets balance between two impulses: fear and greed.

Conclusion
"In the financial world, gold is not just a metal, but also a metaphor for trust," said economist Paul Krugman.

When confidence in currencies wanes, investors return to what can't be printed.
Gold has once again become a measure not only of wealth but also of patience.

By Jake Sullivan
October 8, 2025

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